Happy 2036!
Financial forecasts for 2026 – if not as much use as a chocolate teapot – will soon prove out of date or illusory. A truly long-term view is better if you want to efficiently manage your portfolio. So, let’s attempt a few prophecies for 2036!
Looking this far out, one thing seems sure: the largest stock in the world today will certainly have been knocked off the top spot. Over a ten-year period, financial revolutions inevitably topple thrones. Who still remembers 2005, when oil stock Exxon was top dog? The irony is brutal with today’s depressed, inflation-adjusted crude oil price (below USD 60 per barrel for WTI[1]).
In 2015, following the smartphone revolution, the crown was held by Apple, which enjoyed a long reign. But today, after a rise of 23,000% in 10 years, Nvidia has supplanted it. Given the speed at which Nvidia is growing and unless Apple – which does not look to be at the cutting edge of innovation in artificial intelligence – instigates a new revolution, it is difficult to envisage this gap being closed. But if the financial revolution continues its work of creative destruction, it’s a good bet – although there can be no certainty – that Nvidia will itself have been toppled in 10 years.
Who will be the next shooting star? Could it be the stratospheric Palantir, which trades on an estimated 2026 PER of 170x (according to the Bloomberg consensus) having risen by close to 1,000% in 2 years – almost triple the rise of Nvidia over this period? But will the future leading light really be a technology stock – as it is tempting to believe today – or will a new era of financial domination have been ushered in? At a time when the use of metals is proving critical to global electrification, ironically, we may find an old-world stock at the head of the new world – a mining stock, for example? Certainly, a surprising hypothesis from today’s perspective, but silver has risen by close to 150%, and copper futures have risen by over 27% this year. Given the anticipated long-term imbalance of supply and demand in these metals, their take-off looks like the first phase in a long ascent.
Stocks related to war, including in its digital format, could also become the new flagships of the economy, on a planet where the search for global domination is the focus of rising competition, including in space. In any case, concentrating portfolios solely on the technology sector could prove counterproductive.
In addition to equities, investments in the coming 10 years will also include bonds. Here a key factor could result in a major shift: confidence in sovereign debt could decline significantly. The International Monetary Fund currently forecasts gross debt to GDP of 143% for the US by 2030. Given that this ratio is close to 125% for 2025, we can assume that it will be a lot higher than 150% in 2036. This is a level reminiscent of Greece or Italy during the eurozone crisis of the early 2010s, even if the power of the US limits the extent of the comparison. Logically, lenders should require a larger premium to continue to lend to the US. We could therefore see a structural rise in rates, with safe haven assets benefiting, continuing the trend seen in 2025 when the dollar lost over 10% versus a basket of currencies, supporting the 64% rise of gold. Investors thinking about 2036 would therefore do well to be wary of US debt (not to mention French debt) and to scale back their dollar exposure.
Happily, faced with such prospects, human intelligence should lead us to think up solutions to preclude them. So, let’s hope that – aided by artificial intelligence – mankind manages to construct a more stable financial world in 2036.
Alexis Bienvenu, Fund Manager, La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE)
Final version of 2 January 2026
Disclaimers: The data and opinions provided herein and the stocks mentioned are for information purposes only and thus do not represent an offer to buy or sell securities, investment advice or financial research. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
[1] West Texas Intermediate